On Abrogation of Article 370, and 35A

In the discussions on today's events there is one interesting statistic from the (erstwhile!) state of Jammu & Kashmir that is easily overlooked.

In Lok Sabha 2019 elections, Farooq Abdulla's National Conference bagged less than 8% of the votes of people of J&K. Mehbooba Mufti's PDP got less than 3% of the votes. BJP bagged whopping 46% of all the votes polled in the state. BJP's candidate from Jammu, Jugal Kishore alone bagged over 8.5 lakh votes, which is 3 times the total votes bagged by all National Conference candidates put together (~2.8 lakhs), and 7 times more than the votes bagged by all PDP candidates put together (~1.2 lakhs)! (Source: Election Commission of India's official website http://eciresults.nic.in).

In a democracy the best way to judge the mood of the people is through elections. And LS 2019 results from Jammu & Kashmir clearly show that the Muftis and the Abdullahs no longer represent the voice of the people of the state. With BJP, which had promised to revoke Article 370, winning close to half of the votes in the state, no one can argue that people of Jammu & Kashmir were opposed to abrogation of Article 370 & 35A.

Lok Sabha 2019 Prediction

The day Mumbai went to polls, I spent some time in the evening to guess what could be likely election results. Here are my guesstimates:

Congress : 80-90
Cong Allies: 40
UPA : 120-130

BJP : 250-260
BJP Allies: 50
NDA : 300-310

Others : 110

Gujarat Assembly Election Predictions

I had not done too bad in predicting results of Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections earlier this year. Now I can take take the risk of throwing out my guess on results of today's Gujarat Assembly Elections. And I better do it before the exit polls come out in a few hours and start biasing my thoughts with their garbage. So here is my guess -

BJP: 135 - 145
Congress: 45 - 35
Others: 2

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election Predictions

Voting for UP Assembly elections comes to an end this evening.

Here's my prediction for UP Assembly results:

BJP+       : 240 - 250

BSP         : 80 - 90

SP-Cong : 60    [SP: 45 - 50. Cong: 10 - 15]

Others     : 15

Let's see what happens.

"Congress-mukta Bharat" in progress!

I have been busy last few weeks, and did not see results of 2016 Assembly elections until last night. It was good to see BJP/NDA sweep Assam. The first statement of CM-designate Sarbanand Sonowal that his government will secure the border in two years inspires hope. Results from Kerala and West Bengal aren't bad either. Although BJP did not win many seats in either of the states, they opened their account in Kerala. More importantly, in both the states vote share of BJP/NDA was in double digits. In five years BJP will emerge as an alternative to present political formations in both the states.

While it is good to see BJP emerging stronger, it is equally heartening to see the decline of Congress. "Congress-mukta Bharat" is in progress! For the good of the nation, Congress has to be stripped out of power all over the country, and the Ghazi-Nehru-Gandhi family has to be denuded of any the political influence that they have over India. Presently Congress is left with control of Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand state governments, apart from Puducherry and few states in the North East. Uttarakhand, Congress will lose early next year. Himachal also goes to polls later next year. Congress is also bound to lose Karnataka in 2018.

Assam election results are worth spending pondering upon, because the conditions on the ground in Assam were materially the same in 2011 and 2016, and yet the results have been so different. BJP should have won in 2011 the way they won last week. But BJP came 5th with 5 seats out of 124, while Congress triumphed on 78. In 2016 NDA has won 84 seats with a vote share of over 40%. A huge jump from 5 seats to 84 seats in 5 years. The difference between then and now is the difference between Advani's BJP, and the BJP of Modi-Shah. One of the reasons purported for Congress victory in 2011 was Hindu consolidation in favour of Congress to keep pro-Bangladeshi illegal immigrant AIUDF out of power. "Hindu consolidation in favour of Congress" - there can hardly be a bigger irony in Indian politics. Hindus were voting for a political party that enacted the disastrous anti-Hindu Illegal Migrants Determination Act. BJP being unable to project itself as a viable alternative to Hindus of Assam was its failure in 2011. Modi-Shah's BJP of 2016 succeeded in doing what the BJP of 2011 had failed to do. By forging a successful alliance with AGP, and BPF, BJP ensured unity of all anti-illegal immigrant forces in the state, giving them a resounding victory.

Good days lie ahead for BJP, for Assam, and for India. "Congress-mukta Bharat" is in progress.

A very good read ...

I have been updating links to news reports and articles related to EVM manipulations in my post that I wrote on 2nd August. However this article by independent columnist Coomi Kapoor is too good to be buried among a list of links. So I am posting a separate link here for greater visibility.

Do read and let me know what you think. That's very important, because democracy is about what we, ordinary (or extra-ordinary!) Indians think.

Ciao! Take care.

More ...

More demonstrations of EVM failings.


Poll panel allows petitioners to show EVM's tamperbility


And more

Chandragupta's research on EVM reliability

This is an excellent research on reliability of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), which Chandragupta sent me by email. I would like to post it here for the benefit of all. Enjoy!


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Chandragupta Acharya
Date: Sun, May 17, 2009 at 8:24 AM
Subject: Food for thought.....
To:

For the second consecutive parliamentary election, the results have defied pre-election predictions. How can political analysts, psephologists, opinion polls, exit polls, independent surveys, internal estimates of political parties (as reported in the media) etc - ALL go wrong? How come the Congress is consistently getting more seats than what is predicted by all of the above? It happened in the 2004 election and again in 2009. I find it curious and wonder if this is the magic of the Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) .

A short search on the internet threw up the following:
First, a detailed presentation and FAQ from the Election Commission of India on EVM used in the 2009 elections, including its security and integrity aspects:
Election Commission of India
(see 'Presentation' and 'FAQ' link on the bottom right hand corner)

For the recently concluded elctions, EVMs have been supplied by Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bangalore and Electronics Corporation of India Limited (ECIL), Hyderabad. About 1.36 million electronic voting machines were used in 828,000 polling booths across the country. An IIT Graduate from Pune has alleged that the EVMs are vulnerable to magnetic fields, but his claim is rejected by ECIL Chairman. See news report:
ECIL claim

BEL tried to export its EVMs to the US. But Americans rejected India's EVMs because they were not convinved the EVMs were tamper proof (This is from July 2004 - after Vajpayee's defeat):
EVMs not to debut in US

In US, the EVMs have been a subject of intense controversy, which is why US has not yet adopted fully to Electronic Voting. Machines can have problems such as counting some votes twice or making errors in adding up. (To be fair, the machines mentioned below are different from the ones used in India)
California Progress Report

Some people claim that the machines can be easily hacked.
Hacking an e voting machine

The first link below has several references to experts who claim EVMs can be tampered with, including a video which shows the machine making a 'mistake':
Independent.co.uk

WebIndia123.com

In fact, the following passage on George Bush's controversial election win in 2004 is worth reproducing here:
"Writing in the New Statesman way back in 2004, reflecting on criticisms of the electronic voting systems used in the presidential election that year, Michael Meacher MP pointed out that statisticians, academics and political analysts had highlighted significant voting differences between electoral districts that used paper ballots and those that used electronic systems. These cannot be explained by random variation. The investigators found a much larger variance than expected and in every case it favoured George W Bush over John Kerry. In Wisconsin and Ohio, the discrepancy favoured Bush by 4 per cent, in Pennsylvania by 5 per cent, in Florida and Minnesota by 7 per cent, in North Carolina by 9 per cent and in New Hampshire by a whopping 15 per cent.

Research by the University of Berkeley, California, revealed election irregularities in 2004 in Florida. These irregularities, all of which were associated with electronic voting machines, appear to have awarded between 130,000 to 260,000 additional votes to Bush.

The discrepancies between paper and electronic voting could be the result of simple technological glitches. But some experts detect something more sinister: outright vote fixing by interference with voting machine and tabulation software".

In fact, George Bush's 2004 election turned controversial precisely because the actual results turned out to be different from what exit polls predicted:
George Bush's 2004 election

Here is an 8-part interview series with Stephen Spoonamore, a US security expert who explains why electronic voting is inherently unsafe:
Stephen Spoonamore on youtube

Or read this book "Black Box Voting" available free on the internet on the website given below, written by two US computer security experts:
http://www.blackboxvoting.org

In the US, Voting machine security audits have uncovered serious vulnerabilities:
California voting machine security tests cover serious vulnerabilities

Food for thought.
-Chandragupta

Biting my fingers

As I write this, the final phase of polling is under way for the 15th Lok Sabha. This election is supposed to be more closely fought than any other Lok Sabha election before this.

In the last year or so I have gained tremendous equanimity with respect to happenings in our world. It is not that I don't care what happens in the world. Far from that, I am really concerned about where the world, and especially India, is heading. But, of late, incidents in the outside world do not take away from me my equanimity. I feel elated or disappointed. I become happy or unhappy. But I do not feel depressed or demoralized. This world is like a dog's tail. No sooner than you think that it is straightened out, do you realize that is as curved as it ever was. Despite the imperfections of the world we have to go on doing what we consider to be best for the world and ourselves. Not only do I think this way, to a reasonable extent, I am able to live this thought.

Despite all this, the on-going elections is making me nervous. I feel attached to my desires. I desire certain result and it makes me nervous to think that it may not turn out to be so. My quiet continence only hides the flutter of the heart within. I have to try to be detached. Our great country will outlast impacts of a hundred elections. No power on earth can stop the forward march of our great nation. No matter what happens in this election, our country will continue to progress.

Thirteen centuries ago a great child was born in the small village of Kaladi in central Kerala, by the Periyar river. The child grew into a boy who changed the future of this nation forever. Millions have followed his path and nurtured the soul of this nation. One moment, one election, one party, one family cannot impair the institution of four thousand years and cherished by a billion people.

Our beloved nation would go on, unfettered, unshackled, unhampered. I know should never be discouraged at failure. I have never been. Never will I be in future. If anything, not seeing success should only strengthen one's resolve to work harder, with greater detachment, towards a loftier goal, more wisely. That's the spirit I am made of. If not today, there will be success tomorrow.