Gujarat Assembly Election Predictions

I had not done too bad in predicting results of Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections earlier this year. Now I can take take the risk of throwing out my guess on results of today's Gujarat Assembly Elections. And I better do it before the exit polls come out in a few hours and start biasing my thoughts with their garbage. So here is my guess -

BJP: 135 - 145
Congress: 45 - 35
Others: 2

My Travels

2017. Oct - Bhimashankar
          Jun - Matheran (5th trip)
2016. Dec - Ahmedabad, Somnath, Gir.
          Jul - Bintan - Indonesia.
2015. Nov - Phuket - Thailand.
2014. Apr - Branson - Missouri.
2013. Aug - Chicago (3rd trip).
          Jul - Chicago (2nd trip)
2012. Oct - Ahmedabad.
          Apr - Key West, Miami - Florida.
2011. Jan - Alibag.
2010. Nov - Las Vegas (2nd trip)
          Apr - Chicago (1st trip)
2009. Aug - Cannon Beach, Portland
          Sep - Portland
          Jul - Washington DC, New York (2nd trip), Niagara Falls
2008. Nov - Las Vegas (1st trip)
          Jul - Portland, Crater Lake (or was it in 2009?)
          Jun - Cruise to Alaska with ports of call at Whittier, Skagway, Juneau, Ketchikan, and Vancouver - BC, Canada
          Apr - Vancouver - British Columbia, Canada
2007. Mar - Interlaken, Jungfrau, Lucern, Lugano, Geneva - Switzerland
          Sep - Moved to Seattle (based here till 2011)
2006. Dec - London (2nd trip)
          Nov - Edinburgh, Scotland highlands (Scotland)
          Oct - London (1st trip)
          Aug - Lonavala (5th trip)
Cambridge
Bury St Edmonds
Felixstowe
Kodaikanal, Palani
Chennai, Mahabalipuram (3nd trip)
Mysore
2005. Nov - Mauritius
          Oct - New York (1st trip)
          Sep - Antwerp, Brussels (2 trips), Brugge, Namur - Belgium. Based in Gent - Belgium
2004. Based in Seoul - South Korea          Chennai (3rd trip), Madurai (2nd trip), Kanyakumari (2nd trip), Rameshwaram
2003. May?? Khandala/Lonavala (4th trip)
2002.
2001. Jan - Goa (5th trip, with B-school friends)
Chennai (2nd trip)
Coorg
2000.
1999. Apr - Puri, Konark, Chilka lake, Nandakanan Zoo, Simlipal national park, Bhuvaneshwar
          Feb - Khandala/Lonavala (3rd trip)
1998. Apr - Bhimashankar (1st trip)
          Apr - Matheran (3rd trip, with office friends),
1997. Jun - Malwan, Lanja, Sawantwadi (4th trip), Goa (5th trip), Amboli, Kolhapur
1996.
1995. Jun - Goa
1994. Jan - Ahmedabad.
1993. Jul - Lonavala (2nd trip), Pune
          Jun - Sawantwadi (3rd trip), Kharepatan, Goa (5th trip)
          May?? - Alibag (2nd trip with Vidya Bhawan friends)
1992.
1991. Jan - Bangalore, Mysore, Ooty
          May - Sangli
1990. Oct - Trek in Talasari & Dadra Nagar Haveli
          Apr - Karad (3rd trip)
          May - Sangli (2nd trip)
1989. Oct - Trek in Talasari & Dadra Nagar Haveli
1988. May* - Hrushikesh, Badrinath, Haridwar, Delhi, Agra, Mathura
1987. Dec* - Goa (4th trip school picnic)
          Nov?? - Lonavala (1st trip)
          Nov?? - Goa (3rd trip)
          May - Karad (2nd trip)
1986. May* - Karad (1st trip), Narsimhapur, Ichalkaranji, Aurangabad, Devgiri, Ajanta, Verul (Ellora)
          Jan?? - Matheran (1st trip)
1985. Nov* - Sawantwadi (2nd trip), Goa (2nd trip), Ratnagiri, Paavas
1984. Nov* - Goa (1st trip)
          Mar - Mahabaleshwar
1983.
1982. Jun* - Chennai (1st trip), Mahabalipuram (1st trip), Madurai (1st trip), Kanya Kumari (1st trip), Thiruvananthapuram
1981. When?? - Alibag (1st trip)          Apr* - Nashik, Shirdi
          Feb* - Sawantwadi (1st trip)
1980.          
1979.
1978.
1977.
1976.


 Legend:
* = confirmed
?? = not confirmed

Dinner

Grilled chicken, steamed vegetables, fruit salad, rice, and iced tea. This was my dinner last night, at Kenny Roger's Roasters in Robinsons mall on ADB street, Manila, Philippines. The first two days of my stay in I stuck to my vegetarian diet. Then I realized that I would probably be eating Veggie Delight at Subway for next 4 weeks, if I insist on being a vegetarian in Manila. 

So here I am now, having a roasted chicken, or a grilled fish, or both, for dinner almost every night. The last time I have had non-vegetarian food so frequently was in 2004, while I was in South Korea. Since returning back from South Korea in January of 2005, I have been generally away from non-vegetarian food till coming to Philippines this month. And I will be away from meat once I return to bhArat next weekend. But while I am here, I am doing what the Romans do in Rome, and eating what the Philippinos eat in Philippines. And I am enjoying it!

That Rare Day when Pakistan is a Winner

It is not always that Indians get an opportunity to envy Pakistanis. Since India got independence from Britain, and Pakistan was formed 70 years ago, India has left Pakistan far behind on all parameters of development. Yet today is that rare day when Indians are looking at Pakistan with envy. The reason for that is Pakistan Supreme Court's judgment in the Panama Papers case involving Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The speed with which Pakistani judiciary has moved on this case is commendable.

Here's a timeline of how the case unfolded:
3rd Apr 2016: "Panama Papers" become public, mention Nawaz Sharif and his family members owning shell companies abroad
Apr-May 2016: Judiciary declines PM Nawaz Sharif's request to form what it called "a toothless commission" to investigate the charges
29th Aug 2016: Imram Khan files petition in court to disqualify PM Nawaz Sharif on charges of corruption, money laundering and owning benami properties abroad
1st Nov 2016: Court beings daily hearing of the case
20th Apr 2017: Court orders setting up of Joint Investigation Team and gives it 60 days to investigate
6th May 2017: JIT formed with full authority to investigate allegations against PM
10th Jul 2017: JIT submits report to court saying Nawaz Sharif and his family cannot justify their huge income, and the companies & property they own aborad
28th Jul 2017: Supreme Court of Pakistan disqualifies PM Nawaz Sharif, declares lifetime ban on him from holding any public office, and orders filing of cases against him

In just 11 months since the case was filed, Pakistani Supreme court has disqualified PM Nawaz Sharif, made him an accused in cases of financial misappropriation, and put an end to his political career. It is not unlikely that he will soon end up in jail.

If Indian courts move this fast it won't be long before corrupt politicians and their family members like Robert Vadra, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, P. Chidambaram and Manmohan Singh are put behind bars.

Hours after Pakistani Supreme Court delivered its judgment this afternoon, Nawaz Sharif stepped down as PM. Twenty-two years ago, a court in India had delivered a similar judgment disqualifying India's incumbent Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi. Instead of stepping down from her post, Indira Gandhi had declared a State of Emergency, jailed all her opponents, and then commited terrible crimes against Indian Democracy. Crimes for which she never got punished by law. On this point too Pakistani democracy of today appears more mature than Indian democracy of that time.

Today is a rare day indeed, when Pakistan comes out a winner in a comparison to India.

Victim of worst form of terrorism tells her story

Every sane human being should watch this till the end. Unfortunately we do not hear such stories in the mainstream media, which has always done everything possible to cover-up acts of terrorism. There are two important sentences that we need to remember.

First, at 23:00 Sunanda says, "Kashmir is the first laboratory of Islamist terror and it must be defeated". And second at 4:26, where while talking about the beginings of terrorism in Kashmir in 1990, Sunanda explains, "We were still living in denial". 27 years later, many people in India are still living in denial. If we do not wake up and support those who are fighting against terrorism, millions more will continue to become victims.

The story around imposition of Emergency by Indira Gandhi on 25th June 1975

On 28th September 1942, British government arrested Raj Narain and logged him in jail, where he would remain detained until 1945. Raj Narain was a social worker, and a freedom fighter. He was born in 1917 in a village near Varanasi. In 1934, he became member of Congress Socialist Party. When he was arrested by the British he was the president of Student Congress and was leading protests in and around Varanasi during 1942 Quit India movement.



After independence, Raj Narain joined the Socialist Party led by Acharya Narendra Deva, Jayprakash Narayan and Dr Rammanohar Lohia. Dr. Lohia described him as "a person who has heart of a Lion and practices of Gandhi". Dr. Lohia even said, "if in India there could be just three or four persons like him, dictatorship can never shadow the democracy".

In 1971 Lok Sabha elections Raj Narain contested against Indira Gandhi from Rae Bareli constituency. After Indira Gandhi won the election by fraudulent means, Raj Narain filed a petition in Allahabad High Court alleging that Indira Gandhi used bribery, government machinery and resources to gain an unfair advantage in the election. Narain specifically charged Indira Gandhi of using government employees as election agents and of organising campaign activities in the constituency while still on the payroll of the government.

During the course of the trail, Indira Gandhi attained the dubious distinction of becoming the first India Prime Minister to be cross-examined as an accused in a High Court. On 12 June 1975, Justice Jagmohanlal Sinha found Indira Gandhi guilty of electoral malpractices. Sinha declared the outcome of election in Rae Bareilly constituency "null and void", and barred Indira from holding elected office for six years. He had found Indira guilty of misusing government machinery. The court order gave the Congress party twenty days to make arrangements to replace Indira Gandhi in her official posts. Indira Gandhi challenged the High Court's decision in the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court delivered the verdict on 24 June 1975, upholding the High Court judgement and ordering that all privileges Indira Gandhi received as an MP be stopped, and that she be debarred from voting.

Indira Gandhi then asked the President of India, Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, to declare emergency, and state of Internal Emergency was declared on the next day, 25th June 1975. The reason cited was that political disorder was a threat to national security. Raj Narain was arrested and put in jail, along with other opposition party leaders like Jayprakash Narayan, Vajpayee, and Advani. Using sweeping powers granted by the emergency decree, thousands of opposition leaders and activists were arrested, press censorship was introduced and elections were postponed. During this period, Congress party amended the Indian Constitution and overwrote the law that Indira Gandhi had been found guilty of violating. As the constitution requires, Indira Gandhi advised continuation of Emergency over every six-month period and the compliant President Fakruddin Ahmed approved it every time.

In Januray 1977 Indira Gandhi decided to hold elections. Voting was conducted between 16th and 19th March. Counting of votes was done on 20th March. The Congress party faced a historic defeat, with its seats tally coming down from 350 in 1971 to 153 in 1977. The Janata Party alliance won a landslide majority with 345 seats, winning close to 52% of total votes polled. Raj Narian contested again from Rae Bareli constituency against Indira Gandhi, and defeated Indira Gandhi by more than 55,000 votes. Emergency was officially ended the next day, 21st March 1977.

Feels like Singapore

It is a warm night in Pune. The tempareture is around 33 degress centigrade, which is not bad. What is making the night so uncomfortable is total absence of wind. That is making the weather miserable. It is like being in Singapore. Not too hot. But lot of humidity and absolutely no wind at all. Which is very uncomfortable weather.

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election Predictions

Voting for UP Assembly elections comes to an end this evening.

Here's my prediction for UP Assembly results:

BJP+       : 240 - 250

BSP         : 80 - 90

SP-Cong : 60    [SP: 45 - 50. Cong: 10 - 15]

Others     : 15

Let's see what happens.